What does the future hold for Toyota USA?

Updated 1-30-08. When we talk years, we usually mean model years; cars for the next model year show up around September-October in most cases. See the new 2008 Land Cruiser photos.

Toyota is bringing out next-generation factory technology, starting with one of its oldest Japanese plants; more on this later.

Toyota’s pre-crash technologies: Keeping your eyes on the road (closed-eye detector; 2008)

New crossover

The new Camry-based crossover will be smaller and more economical than the current Camry-based Highlander, and will share Camry powerplants (or just the V6). We have details and photos at the Toyota Venza page.

TRD

Just after the unveiling of the Lexus F series, Toyota Australia is set to reveal a new range of performance cars under the established TRD brand. They can be seen at http://trd.com.au/ and should be officially shown at the Melbourne International Motorshow in March. (Thanks, diablotaz)

Sales

Toyota is now the world’s largest automaker in terms of volume, and it is one of the most profitable automakers in the world as well. Toyota has replaced Ford as the second-largest seller of automobiles in the United States and is the #1 seller of retail vehicles in the US (that is, excluding fleet sales).

Scion line

The Scion xD (see details and photos) replaces the xA. The new xB (see details and photos) has 158 horsepower from the Camry four-cylinder replacing the 103 hp 1.5 liter four.

Toyota’s new Scion reduces costs by using a more modular architecture - maximizing common ground on the three vehicles - even as they grow farther apart by using different engines and wheelbasese. The t2b concept car shown in New York in 2005 is one example; it could be built as the current microvan/mini-SUV, or as a fastback.

Yet to be shown is the replacement for the popular tC.

Toyota Car Updates

The Corolla/Matrix is due for renewal for the 2008-2009 model year (delayed by one year); the Matrix will be replaced by the Toyota Blade. Hybrid power is expected for the new Corolla, going along with Toyota’s commitment to make a hybrid version of each vehicle. The Corolla is selling remarkably well in the US and would normally have been refreshed in 2007 or earlier. The major changes are a stiffer new body structure, dramatic safety increases, lower noise from better aerodynamics, and minor boosts in gas mileage and power stemming from addition of variable valve technology to the exhaust valves as well as the intake valves. A new CVT is also planned; whether this spells the end of the manual transmission is uncertain, but the automatic transmission appears to have been dropped completely. A CVT can increase gas mileage slightly but more important, reduces the weight and (reportedly) the cost of the transmission.

Toyota is reportedly planning to bring the Camry to a full half million units sold per year in the US, which will be double the Impala’s sales (GM is planning to limit Impala sales to 250,000 to avoid putting cash on the hood). The Avalon is due for a redesign in 2011 or 2012, with a hybrid finally arriving about a year afterwards. However, the Solara is marked for termination.

The next generation Prius is due in either 2008 or 2010. The 2008 reports may be a lithium-ion battery refresh, essentially changing the batteries and leaving the rest of the car as is. However, the risk of fire appears to have put the use of lithium ion batteries on hold. Fires from LIon notebook batteries are nearly impossible to control, with “letting them burn out” appearing to be the most common option. Toyota may be engineering better safeguards into the battery design or the assembly process; Chrysler, which is working on lithium-ion powered minivans (they mass-produced a number of electric minivans with lead-acid batteries a decade ago), believes that safety can be built into auto applications.

The Mazda-engineered Ford Escape, using Toyota technology, is also being sold, and a Nissan hybrid also using Toyota patents is due soon.

A V-8 powered Supra has been rumored to debut since 2003 but so far no final decision has been made public. It does not look likely now. The Lexus sports car due in 2008-2009 may be its spiritual replacement; or there may be an FT-HS hybrid sporting a 3.5 liter V6 and electric motor for a total of 400 hp; and they may use Subaru's all wheel drive.

Low cost vehicles: Toyota is particularly interested in growing its share of the ever-larger Indian market. This would slot in below the current Scion line but above the $2,500 Tata. The ideal is for a reliable, low-cost car, using existing parts where possible but based on a clean-sheet platform; the vehicle would probably be sold under a different brand name, with a dedicated sales channel, to avoid diluting Toyota's refined image. Two models are being planned, a four-door sedan similar to the Dacia Logan; and a “people mover” similar to the Renault Kangoo.

Toyota Truck Updates

The Toyota Tundra may help Toyota to slip past Ford and become the United States’ second largest automaker; with a 381 horsepower V8, neatly beating every domestic truck engine in horsepower (at least until 2009), the Tundra is a true American-style full-sized pickup. Built in the United States, it may get a heavy duty model (three-quarter or full ton), necessary for that “macho” image so important to American commuters, in three or four years. The big V8 will also be used in the Lexus LX570 and probably the next generation Land Cruiser. The Tundra has been selling well thanks partly to big incentives; marketing is in full force and Texas is being heavily targeted.

The Tundra may benefit from Toyota’s acquisition of chunks of Isuzu; the Isuzu diesel engineers are far more advanced than those at Toyota, and were the main brains behind the successful GM Duramax engines. A diesel engine using Isuzu technology should end up in the Tundra sooner rather than later - possibly at about the same time GM and Dodge bring out their diesel-powered 1500 models. For serious American fleet buyers, the diesel is a very popular option, because it requires less maintenance, provides more grunt, and consumes far less fuel, cutting fuel bills nearly in half in some cases (and farmers can make their own biodiesel). Again, diesels also boost the “rough and tough” image.

The Tacoma is due for redesign in 2012 with a possible hybrid version.

Despite a bigger Sequoia taking over the Land Cruiser's market position, the Land Cruiser itself will hold on, supported by international sales, with a redesign scheduled for 2009. At that time, the 5.7 liter engine is likely to appear with 380 horsepower; the fancy Land Cruiser, or Lexus LX570, already uses that engine.

FJ Cruiser redesign scheduled for 2012 now, with a 2010 “refresh.”

A hybrid version of the Camry-based Highlander is now sold in the United States, with gas mileage at 31 city, 27 highway (EPA; real mileage is about 30 city, 24 highway). The new Highlander is bigger (12 cubic feet of cargo), more powerful (55 hp), and more expensive. Despite the extra weight, gas mileage is expected to remain at 19 city, 25 highway with the V6. It will be four inches longer and three inches wider than the current Highlander, with a three inch wheelbase boost; a 270 horsepower 3.5 liter V6 replaces the 215 horsepower 3.3 liter engine. There will be three rows of seats, and the center middle seat will fold down to become a console.

The new Sequoia will take advantage of all Tacoma upgrades, and will also reportedly feature a new independent rear suspension. Interior space should increase as well. It is to be made larger and more powerful - following the Tundra it’s based on.

The 4Runner, just redesigned for 2006, will be re-engineered again for 2010.

Toyota minivans

Sienna is due for a redesign for the 2010 or 2011 model year, with a hybrid possible. Nicer than the Odyssey in most ways, and certainly more reliable, the Toyota Sienna is now the third-best-selling minivan in America, after Dodge and Honda but ahead of Chrysler.

Lexus

Lexus debuted the new LX 570 luxury utility vehicle during the 2007 New York International Auto Show. It remains a thinly disguised Land Cruiser.

The 2007 model year brought us a redesigned ES350 and LS460; the ES will be freshened for 2010 and redesigned again in 2012. The GS should move to a 3.5 liter V6 in 2008, while the SC is set for a redesign for 2009 - with weight loss and a bigger engine.

The hybrid-electric LS600h will be the first production car in the world with LED headlights (since the headlights tend to drain the battery while at stoplights with the engine off).

The new IS sedan is here, with a 204 horsepower V6 in the IS250 engine (fueled by direct injection!), and a choice of six-speed manual or six-speed automatic transmission; Europeans can get it with a 2.2 liter turbodiesel producing 177 hp but a full 295 lb-ft of torque. As with other Lexii, the IS will have the pre-crash safety system, active cruise control, active suspension, and a whopping ten airbags. There will also be an IS350 with a 3.5 liter V6 producing over 280 horsepower. More worrisome for other automakers is the massive 425 horsepower due from the 2008 IS-F, with a small five-liter V8 producing that massive thrust. Brembo brakes will bring it to a halt. A coupe is expected in calendar-year 2008 with a hardtop convertible following a year or two later.

In 2009, we can expect the final form of the production LF-A sports car (photos in the Auto Show section) and a redesigned RX (including a redesigned hybrid-electric RX400h). The production version should be called LF-1, and it is expected to be a true supercar, complete with 500 horsepower V10 and all wheel drive.

The new JX will be a seven-seat crossover based on the GS, probably with the 3.5 or 4.7 liter engine. The GX (4Runner) is due for a redesign in 2009.